2027 Premiums Are Climbing — And Small Group Is No Escape Hatch

Updated 2026-10-29

ACA Marketplace insurers requested a median premium increase of about 15% for 2027 in Peterson–KFF’s review of 276 insurers across all 50 states and Washington, D.C. These are proposed rate changes, not a promise that every enrollee’s premium will rise by that amount.

The distinction matters. The analysis measures an insurer’s enrollment-weighted average change across its products within a state. That is different from the change in a particular plan, the benchmark Silver premium used to calculate subsidies, or the amount a household ultimately pays after financial assistance.

Most proposed increases fell between 10% and 25%, although the range extended from a small decrease to increases above 50%. Fifty-one insurers requested increases of more than 25%. The report described a second consecutive year of double-digit proposed increases and noted that regulators could change requests during review.

Rising underlying healthcare costs are a major driver. In a closer review of 77 insurers in 16 states and Washington, D.C., KFF found median medical and prescription-drug trend of about 10%. Filings cited higher provider prices, staffing costs, increased utilization, and more expensive claims. GLP-1 medications were another factor, although some insurers expected restrictions on weight-loss coverage to reduce that pressure.

Individual-market policy changes add another layer. Insurers described the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits as a reason healthier consumers might drop coverage. Among insurers making an adjustment for that effect, the expected change in the risk pool added roughly four percentage points to 2027 premiums relative to what they otherwise would have requested. That is not an extra four points to add mechanically to the headline median.

Agent Takeaway: Use national data to prepare for renewal conversations, then replace estimates with final local quotes. A CHOICE Arrangement can make the employer’s contribution more predictable, but employees still face the individual market’s premiums, provider networks, and cost sharing.

Compare the proposed allowance, actual employee premium payments, administration costs, and available plans against the group renewal. Neither the national median nor a different funding model establishes that every employer or employee will save money.